Blueprint for July
Opportunities Abound
By Marty Bell
4 min read
The first slide you see shows that the Congressional Budget Office may forecast GDP growth in 2018 and 2019 due to recent tax changes, but point to a significant and fairly steady decrease after that. The presentation continues with colorful graphs and charts showing how the shortage of construction workers is resulting in higher wages and thus encouraging building more expensively priced, higher-end units to be able to cover costs. You then see evidence of the affordability crisis in ten major cities across the country for nurses, police and half a dozen other vital workforce occupations.
You’re in the room with the charming and funny Edward (Eddie) Seiler, PhD, Fulbright scholar, former director of Economics at Fannie Mae, and now, we are proud to announce, the vice president, Research and Economic Analysis at National Housing & Rehabilitation Association where he will bring a new, valuable perspective on economic and policy analyses to our members, conferences and publications.
This month’s issue is all about opportunity – and Eddie offers new opportunities to NH&RA member companies. “Eddie’s research and analytical skills will help NH&RA and our broader industry better quantify the current state of affordable housing supply and demand, the impact of macroeconomic policy on our industry and better make the case to policy makers and the public on the need for more affordable housing and community development resources,” says NH&RA Executive Director Thom Amdur. “His research and economic forecasting will provide context of broader economic trends and how they impact the affordable housing sector, assisting our members in their future business planning.”
As an introduction to the innovative (and perhaps surprising) thinking Eddie will be bringing to these pages, in this issue you will find his argument that Average Median Income (AMI) might not actually be the best measure of affordability for the workforce we would prefer to keep living within our communities. (Measuring Moderate-Income Affordability)
Innovative thinking is the sweet spot of David. A. Smith and this month he has written, what I consider, a must-read on strategies for Rebooting Private Urban Workforce Housing. (The Guru Is In)
Opportunity is, of course, becoming a word we’re all hearing batted about a good deal more frequently since the tax law was passed. As the Opportunity Zones are designated and clarified state-by-state and the rules for Qualified Opportunity Funds are issued, we asked staff writer Mark Fogarty to seek out folks in the industry who are beginning to organize these capital gains saving vehicles. (Forming Opportunity Funds)
There appears to be widespread new opportunity for developers in Oregon where the legislature has developed a markedly increased political will to encourage affordable housing and may well be a model for what a state can inspire. As Margaret Salazar, the director of the state’s housing agency, ticked off a list of new statewide and city-based incentives at a recent NH&RA west coast conference, we felt compelled to ask her to share the list with our readers. (Talking Heads) And there are attractive new opportunities for employees of the Woda Cooper Companies, recently relocated to Columbus, OH, that is the first affordable housing company converting to an Employee Stock Ownership Plan, which, among other benefits, is easing succession planning. (A Piece of the Action)
While we are looking at these opportunities for developers and investors, we can’t overlook those who are younger and struggling to find their place in the industry and in life, some of who are being very well served by a new collaboration between SER Metro-Detroit and the Shelborne Development Company to give YouthBuild grads a practical chance to test their training on construction of a preservation project in the recovering Midwest city’s downtown. (Upward Mobility in the Motor City)
Welcome Eddie Seiler to NH&RA. And welcome all of you to new opportunities.
Marty Bell, Editor
