October 5th proved an active congressional day in both the House and Senate regarding the Budget Resolution. The House passed its resolution by a narrow margin of 13 votes (219-206), with 18 members of the fractious House GOP joining Democrats in voting against the measure. Regardless, the result leaves Republicans one step closer towards reaching a friendly environment for tax-reform.
Meanwhile, the Senate’s budget committee approved its draft resolution 12-11 along part lines. Eyes will now be on the Senate floor, where at least 4 Republican Senators remain undecided on the resolution. The Senate can only afford to lose two Republican votes if it wants to pass a budget resolution.
If the Senate cannot pass its resolution, a tax reform bill will require support of at least some Democratic Senators. If the Senate is able to pass a budget resolution, the next challenge will be whether House and Senate Republicans can come to an agreement on a concurrent resolution. If they are successful, Congress will be able to utilize reconciliation, allowing the Senate to pass a tax reform bill along party lines.
October 4, 2017 — The House this week began debate over its fiscal 2018 budget resolution. While Tax Reform is a large task for Congress to take on, passing a concurrent resolution over the next month will be a critical first step in making tax reform more plausible for the coming year.
Each year, budget committees in both the House and Senate produce versions of a budget resolution for the upcoming fiscal year. The resolution is not a law, but instead serves as a set of guiding principles in regard to federal spending and revenue for the upcoming fiscal year.
If the House and Senate both pass resolutions, the two chambers will work towards a concurrent budget resolution. A concurrent resolution would grant the Senate the ability to approve a tax reform bill with a simple majority vote – doing away with the need for any democratic buy-in. If the chambers are unable to agree on a concurrent budget resolution, the Senate will have a much harder time passing tax reform (a lesser task for the House, where Republicans enjoy a much larger margin).
Even though the House and Senate are both Republican-controlled, a concurrent budget resolution is no guarantee. Resolutions from the two chambers have shown significant differences. For one, the House resolution requires a tax plan which doesn’t add to the deficit, while the Senate’s resolution allows for up to $1.5 trillion of additional debt over the next ten years. The Senate’s version also calls for level defense funding over the next few years, while the House proposes steep increases in defense spending.
While the House is two days in on floor debate, the Senate resolution has yet to leave committee. The Senate Budget Committee began markup today of its resolution and has another day of markup planned for tomorrow. The Senate is expected to begin floor debate of its resolution in the next 2-3 weeks.
