Economic and Fixed Income Insights

Presented by Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated

Initial jobless claims rose 3k from 241k to 244k in the week ending August 5. The four-week average, however, decreased from 242k to 241k, reinforcing a more positive assessment of US labor market conditions. The producer price index (PPI) fell 0.1% in July, the first month of decline since August 2016. Year-over-year, headline producer prices slowed from 2.0% to 1.9%, a six-month low. US Treasury (UST) yields trended lower over the past week amid increased geopolitical uncertainty and a lack of clarity in the momentum of the US economy. The market widely dismissed earlier tensions between the US and North Korea. More recently, however, safe haven assets are rising in demand. The 10-year UST finished 3 basis points lower at 2.22% while the 30-year UST finished 2 basis points lower at 2.81%. Municipal yields trended lower over the past week as a result of persistently low inflation, diminished policy expectations and positive seasonal trends. The 10-year MMD finished 5 basis points lower at 1.88% while the 30-year MMD finished unchanged at 2.74%.


Interest Rate Observations

Benchmark Current Previous
(+/-) Change Previous
(+/-) Change
10-Year UST 2.22% 2.25% (3) 1.56% 66
30-Year UST 2.81% 2.83% (2) 2.27% 54
10-Year MMD 1.88% 1.93% (5) 1.43% 45
30-Year MMD 2.73% 2.73% 0 2.16% 57
Federal Funds Rate 1.25% 1.25% 0 0.50% 75
1-month LIBOR 1.23% 1.23% 0 0.51% 72
SIFMA 0.78% 0.79% (1) 0.46% 32
10-year LIBOR Swap 2.17% 2.21% (4) 1.44% 73

Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg. The table above reflects market conditions as of August 14, 2017

Important Disclosures

This material was prepared by Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated (“Stifel”). This material is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy discussed herein. The information contained is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Stifel as to accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Stifel does not provide accounting; tax or legal advice and clients are advised to consult with their accounting, tax or legal advisors prior to making any investment decision.

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