General News Category Archives

Economic and Fixed Income Insights as of December 6, 2017

Presented by Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated

The US job market continues to expand as private payrolls increased by 190,000 in November, well ahead of expectation. The growth comes as the US unemployment rate is at 4.1%, a 17-year low. In other news, total mortgage applications rose 4.7% last week from the previous week and are now 8% higher than a year ago. While buyer demand remains strong, the supply of affordable homes for sale is not as inventories are dropping all around the country. Both taxable and tax-exempt rates drifted lower over the past week on geopolitical concerns and the possibility of a US government shutdown on Saturday. The 10-year UST finished 2 basis points higher to yield 2.35% and the 30-year UST finished 3 basis points lower to finish at 2.73%.  Tax-exempt yields remain volatile and fell sharply after rising steadily the week prior. The 10-year MMD finished 17 basis points lower at 1.99% while the 30-year MMD finished 24 basis points lower to yield 2.58%.

Interest Rate Observations

Benchmark Current Previous
Week
(+/-) Change Previous
Year
(+/-) Change
10-Year UST 2.35% 2.33% 2 2.38% (3)
30-Year UST 2.73% 2.76% (3) 3.04% (31)
10-Year MMD 1.99% 2.16% (17) 2.52% (53)
30-Year MMD 2.58% 2.82% (24) 3.26% (68)
Federal Funds Rate 1.25% 1.25% 0 0.50% 75
1-month LIBOR 1.40% 1.35% 5 0.62% 78
SIFMA 0.97% 0.96% 1 0.56% 41
10-year LIBOR Swap 2.37% 2.32% 5 2.21% 16

Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg. The table above reflects market conditions as of December 5, 2017

Important Disclosures

This material was prepared by Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated (“Stifel”). This material is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy discussed herein. The information contained is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Stifel as to accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Stifel does not provide accounting; tax or legal advice and clients are advised to consult with their accounting, tax or legal advisors prior to making any investment decision.

Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated is a broker-dealer registered with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member FINRA, NYSE & SIPC. @ 2017

Economic and Fixed Income Insights as of November 29, 2017

Presented by Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporate

Economic and Fixed Income Insights

US purchases of new homes unexpectedly increased last month, reaching the strongest pace in a decade and offering an encouraging signal for residential construction. The Commerce Department reported that new home sales increased 6.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000 units, the highest level since October 2007. In other economic news, the Consumer Confidence Index rose from 126.2 to 129.5 in November, a 17-year high.  Taxable rates were little changed for the week.  The 10-year UST finished down 3 basis points to yield 2.33%, and the 30-year UST finished unchanged at 2.76%.  Tax-exempt yields rose steadily over the past week.  The 10-year MMD finished 12 basis points higher at 2.16% while the 30-year MMD finished 9 basis points higher to yield 2.82%.

Interest Rate Observations

Benchmark Current Previous
Week
(+/-) Change Previous
Year
(+/-) Change
10-Year UST 2.33% 2.36% (3) 2.38% (5)
30-Year UST 2.76% 2.76% 0 3.04% (28)
10-Year MMD 2.16% 2.04% 12 2.52% (36)
30-Year MMD 2.82% 2.73% 9 3.26% (44)
Federal Funds Rate 1.25% 1.25% 0 0.50% 75
1-month LIBOR 1.35% 1.31% 4 0.62% 73
SIFMA 0.94% 0.92% 2 0.56% 38
10-year LIBOR Swap 2.32% 2.36% (4) 2.21% 11

Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg. The table above reflects market conditions as of November 28, 2017

Important Disclosures

This material was prepared by Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated (“Stifel”). This material is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy discussed herein. The information contained is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Stifel as to accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Stifel does not provide accounting; tax or legal advice and clients are advised to consult with their accounting, tax or legal advisors prior to making any investment decision.

Economic and Fixed Income Insights: November 22, 2017

Presented by Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated

On Monday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she would step down from the Federal Reserve once her successor is sworn into office. Her departure leaves President Trump with four seats to fill on the Fed’s board of governors. President Trump has nominated Jerome Powell to replace Yellen, when her term ends in February, though his chairmanship is still subject to Senate confirmation. It’s a short week due to the Thanksgiving holiday and a relatively light economic calendar. According to Bloomberg, existing home sales rose 2% in October from 5.37 million to a 5.48 million unit pace, significantly above the 0.2% rise expected. Taxable rates fell along the curve while tax-exempt rates continued to tick upward. The 10-year UST finished the week down 1 basis point to yield 2.36%, and the 30-year UST finished 7 basis points lower to yield 2.76%. The 10-year MMD finished 4 basis points higher to yield 2.04% while the 30-year MMD finished 3 basis points higher to yield 2.73%.

Interest Rate Observations

Benchmark Current Previous

Week

(+/-) Change Previous

Year

(+/-) Change
10-Year UST 2.36% 2.37% (1) 2.22% 14
30-Year UST 2.76% 2.83% (7) 2.92% (16)
10-Year MMD 2.04% 2.00% 4 2.21% (17)
30-Year MMD 2.73% 2.70% 3 3.01% (28)
Federal Funds Rate 1.25% 1.25% 0 0.50% 75
1-month LIBOR 1.31% 1.26% 5 0.55% 76
SIFMA 0.94% 0.92% 2 0.55% 39
10-year LIBOR Swap 2.36% 2.36% 0 2.08% 28

Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg. The table above reflects market conditions as of November 21, 2017

Important Disclosures

This material was prepared by Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated (“Stifel”). This material is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy discussed herein. The information contained is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Stifel as to accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Stifel does not provide accounting; tax or legal advice and clients are advised to consult with their accounting, tax or legal advisors prior to making any investment decision.

Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated is a broker-dealer registered with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member FINRA, NYSE & SIPC. @ 2017

 

Economic and Fixed Income Insights as of November 15, 2017

Presented by Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated

Federal Reserve officials debating the path of interest rates received welcome signs of life from Wednesday’s price data.  Core inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, increased last month for the first time since January.  Rising home and medical care prices contributed heavily to the increase, while soft energy prices weighed on the topline inflation number. In other economic news, retail sales increased in October.  Combined with an upward revision in September data, consumer demand going into the shopping season is poised to be a boon for fourth quarter growth. Volatility has been the story in the bond market.  After sizable declines, taxable and tax-exempt interest rates have climbed steadily over the past week. Both the 10-year and 30-year UST finished 5 basis points higher to yield 2.37% and 2.83% respectively. The 10-year MMD finished 8 basis points higher to yield 2.00% while the 30-year MMD finished 10 basis points higher to yield 2.70%.

Interest Rate Observations

Benchmark Current Previous
Week
(+/-) Change Previous
Year
(+/-) Change
10-Year UST 2.37% 2.32% 5 2.22% 15
30-Year UST 2.83% 2.78% 5 2.92% (9)
10-Year MMD 2.00% 1.92% 8 2.21% (21)
30-Year MMD 2.70% 2.60% 10 3.01% (31)
Federal Funds Rate 1.25% 1.25% 0 0.50% 75
1-month LIBOR 1.26% 1.24% 2 0.55% 71
SIFMA 0.92% 0.92% 0 0.55% 37
10-year LIBOR Swap 2.36% 2.29% 7 2.08% 28

Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg. The table above reflects market conditions as of November 14, 2017

Important Disclosures

This material was prepared by Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated (“Stifel”). This material is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy discussed herein. The information contained is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Stifel as to accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Stifel does not provide accounting; tax or legal advice and clients are advised to consult with their accounting, tax or legal advisors prior to making any investment decision.

Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated is a broker-dealer registered with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member FINRA, NYSE & SIPC. @ 2017

New Analysis Estimates Repeal of PABs Would Reduce Affordable Housing Production by 75,000 Units Annually

A new analysis conducted by the law firm Norris George & Ostrow, PLLC and shared with a number of Senators and Congressional Representatives finds that the elimination of Private Activity Bonds (PABs) proposed in HR 1 would reduce affordable housing production by as much as 75,000 units per year or about 60% of the nation’s annual affordable housing production. 

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Economic and Fixed Income Insights as of November 8, 2017

Presented by Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated

Last Thursday, the White House announced its nomination of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. If confirmed by the Senate, Powell will begin serving as Chairman in February, replacing current Fed Chair Janet Yellen. As a current member of the FOMC’s Board of Governors, Powell is considered a dove with a clear track record of voting along with leadership and in favor of the Fed’s current low rate policy. The U.S. House Republican tax bill released last Thursday would put an end to the issuance of private activity bonds, which would have devastating effects on the construction and preservation of affordable housing. After trending higher over the past few weeks, both taxable and tax-exempt interest rates dropped significantly. For the week, the 10-year UST finished 6 basis points lower to yield 2.32% while the 30-year UST finished 10 basis points lower to yield 2.78%. The 10-year MMD finished 9 basis points lower to yield 1.92% while the 30-year MMD finished 23 basis points lower to yield 2.60%.

Interest Rate Observations

Benchmark Current Previous
Week
(+/-) Change Previous
Year
(+/-) Change
10-Year UST 2.32% 2.38% (6) 2.06% 26
30-Year UST 2.78% 2.88% (10) 2.85% (7)
10-Year MMD 1.92% 2.01% (9) 1.86% 6
30-Year MMD 2.60% 2.83% (23) 2.69% (9)
Federal Funds Rate 1.25% 1.25% 0 0.50% 75
1-month LIBOR 1.24% 1.24% 0 0.54% 70
SIFMA 0.92% 0.92% 0 0.55% 37
10-year LIBOR Swap 2.29% 2.35% (6) 1.93% 36

Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg. The table above reflects market conditions as of November 7, 2017.

Important Disclosures

This material was prepared by Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated (“Stifel”). This material is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy discussed herein. The information contained is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Stifel as to accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Stifel does not provide accounting; tax or legal advice and clients are advised to consult with their accounting, tax or legal advisors prior to making any investment decision.

Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated is a broker-dealer registered with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member FINRA, NYSE & SIPC. @ 2017